Summary

Internal Amazon planning documents project that the company's own logistics network will carry a growing majority of its United States packages through the end of the decade, with declining shares going to the United States Postal Service and UPS.

Key takeaways

• Amazon projects that its own logistics network will deliver a growing majority of its United States packages through 2029.
• The internal forecast expects the Postal Service and UPS shares of Amazon packages to decline over the same period.
• Amazon has already reduced the volume it assigns to UPS and scaled back its delivery agreement with the Postal Service this year.
• Amazon describes the internal projections as preliminary and subject to significant revision.
• Rural delivery expansion drives much of the change, with new delivery stations covering the final leg in less populated areas.

Amazon became the largest parcel carrier in the United States by volume in 2025, and new reporting indicates the company intends to keep more of its own freight on its own trucks. The projections come from an internal planning document describing how Amazon expects its carrier mix to develop through 2029.

What do the internal projections show?

Amazon forecasts that its logistics network will handle more than 86% of its United States packages next year, according to a report from Business Insider covered by Supply Chain Dive. The company said in 2023 that its own network delivered more than two-thirds of its packages. The internal forecast puts the figure at nearly 89% in 2029. An Amazon spokesperson said the company plans and forecasts across its operations continuously, and described any internal projections as preliminary and subject to significant revision.

How much volume have UPS and the Postal Service lost?

Amazon cut the volume UPS delivers for it by half this year and reduced the scope of its delivery agreement with the Postal Service. The internal projections continue that pattern. Amazon expects the Postal Service to carry 8% of its packages in 2029, down from 10% in 2027, and UPS to carry 1.4%, down from 1.8%. Amazon still hands packages to the Postal Service for certain remote deliveries.

What is driving the expansion?

Rural delivery investment set the direction. Amazon said in 2025 that the spending would bring more than 200 delivery stations to less populated areas, covering the final leg of delivery in lower-volume markets. Mark Waverek, managing partner at PlaidMark Management Consulting Services, told Supply Chain Dive that these areas allow customers to position product closer to end consumers. The investment signaled to the wider parcel market that Amazon intended to depend less on third parties as it pushed for faster delivery.

Carrier mix decisions of any size deserve the same rigor Amazon applies to its own. TransImpact's Parcel Contract Negotiation team works from current market data across thousands of carrier agreements. Request a call to review what your carrier agreements should look like today.