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After a year of tariff uncertainty, many experts believed supply chains were poised to enter a calmer phase in Q2 2026. While tariffs did not disappear, the frenetic pace of new U.S. trade policy announcements had slowed significantly by mid-February.
For supply chain professionals, this shift toward greater certainty was welcomed because stability, more than perfect policy, enables longer-term planning and helps avoid reactive decision-making common during such disruptions.
Shaking up the markets, however, was a long-awaited U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of IEEPA duties (which make up the majority of the Trump administration’s tariffs) issued on February 20. The ruling determined that the IEEPA tariffs were illegal and therefore lifted.
But the subsequent reaction from the President was to announce a 15% Section 122 tariff, which, on average, roughly approximates the IEEPA tariffs. Complicating things further is that Section 122 tariffs come with a critical constraint: they automatically expire after 150 days, creating a deadline unless Congress votes to extend them. Whether Congress will act remains uncertain, with no clear political consensus emerging.
Also important to importers is that, at the time of writing, there has been no guidance issued on whether importers who have already paid IEEPA duties will receive refunds, leaving potentially billions in paid tariffs in limbo. The best advice for companies right now is to contact their customs broker to begin the process of gathering documentation in the hopes that a refund process will be laid out soon.
What the Data is Showing
Although further tariff changes are possible, if not likely, these recent actions may not be as disruptive as they appear. The net cost impact for importers will likely not be significant in the short term, either up or down, but the confidence that the “rules” are understood and the operating environment is stable has been damaged. The one bit of good news is that it’s likely the ceiling of any tariff actions and the cost impact has been reached.
Here are some key data points reflecting the impact of tariffs, so far:
- The average effective tariff rate jumped from 2.2% in January 2025 to 10.91% by October, representing a 4x increase.
- New tariffs generated $148.3 billion in revenue during the first 10 months of 2025 alone and continue to grow.
- Chinese exports bore the brunt, facing effective rates of 37.4% during that period, while steel and aluminum products hit 41.1%.
From Chaos to (Sort of) Manageable Complexity
Prior to 2025, U.S. tariffs were primarily used as a targeted policy tool rather than a broad source of new revenue. Since then, rapid implementation timelines, unclear exemptions, and frequent revisions have forced companies away from strategic planning that sound supply chain practices require, and into a constant defensive mode. Procurement teams chased short-term workarounds while logistics networks were reconfigured hastily. Inventory strategies became reactive rather than optimized.
By contrast, 2026 was starting to look different. Trade measures still exist (as do other persistent geopolitical risks), but the environment has shifted from chaotic uncertainty to something closer to manageable complexity (after all, supply chains are never simple!). At this point, tariff rules are better understood, and, based on current levels largely embedded in most companies’ costs and strategies. Instead of scrambling to respond, supply chain leaders are now managing within largely known cost constraints.
Tariff Impacts and Importer Adaptability
With more time and fewer disruptions, companies can assess how tariffs played out in practice. Several consistent themes are emerging.
First, the immediate direct cost impact of tariffs was often less dramatic than many initially feared. While duties did raise input costs, many companies offset these increases through supplier renegotiations, product redesign, pricing adjustments, or operational efficiencies. Over time, the shock was absorbed across the system rather than landing entirely on any single node, such as consumer prices (at least so far).
Second, supply chain reconfiguration has evolved in a manageable way. Early narratives predicted rapid, wholesale reshoring or nearshoring. In reality, most organizations adopted a “China-plus-one” or “multi-regional” approach rather than a full exit from existing manufacturing hubs. Tariffs tended to accelerate plans already under discussion, rather than forcing immediate, wholesale changes to existing networks.
Third, inventory strategies matured. Initial tariff uncertainty drove precautionary stockpiling, which increased carrying costs and distorted demand signals. As tariff policies stabilized, companies normalized inventory levels and invested in better forecasting and scenario planning.
Winners, Losers, and Lessons Learned
Not all organizations experienced the new tariffs equally. Data suggests that companies with mature supply chain capabilities, such as strong analytics that enable better supplier collaboration, were best positioned to manage the impact. For these businesses, tariffs have become another variable in a complex equation rather than the existential threat many feared.
Conversely, organizations with poor supply chain visibility or highly concentrated sourcing struggled more. Tariffs exposed outdated designs that had gone unaddressed. The most important lesson moving forward is that resilience is cumulative. The investments made during the height of tariff uncertainty have set up companies for success in 2026.
Why "the Worst is Likely Over"
Saying the worst is over does not mean risks are gone. Trade policy remains politically sensitive, and future disputes are inevitable. However, using the present tariff levels as the worst-case scenario, supply chains are no longer being asked to absorb constant, unpredictable upward price shocks. Instead, they are operating in an environment where the most extreme trade frictions are known, priced in, and strategically managed. The industry has adapted structurally, not just tactically.
The Path Forward for Supply Chain Professionals
In 2026, supply chain professionals should focus on three priorities: maintaining the supplier diversification and resilience initiatives begun in 2025, investing in digital tools for scenario planning and real-time cost analysis, and preparing for potential consumer price adjustments in mid- to late- 2026 as deferred costs flow through the system.
Thankfully, and despite the recent court ruling, companies are in a better position to transition from crisis to strategy. While tariffs remain a significant factor in supply chain planning, the industry has (not surprisingly in our opinion) demonstrated impressive adaptability. With real data now available to guide decisions, supply chain professionals can shift from firefighting mode to building genuinely resilient, strategically positioned networks for the long term.
The next advantage comes from turning that visibility into actionable planning decisions.
TransImpact's advanced supply chain and parcel analytics tools help you navigate landed-cost volatility, supplier risk, and transportation impacts with clarity. Request a demo now.
