Global and last-mile supply chains are shifting, with tariffs and carrier competition as two main causes. So, while companies are hoping 2026 will bring back a degree of certainty, the reality is shaping up to be much more complicated.
The businesses that thrive won't be those waiting for a return to ‘normal.’ They'll be the ones actively preparing for a market that will continue evolving. From changing sourcing and trade patterns to warehousing constraints and last-mile carrier dynamics, here are six critical areas that demand immediate attention in your supply chain.
After years of unprecedented tightness, the warehousing market is finally showing signs of relief. The most recent Logistics Managers' Index showed warehouse utilization contracted in late 2025, indicating companies are using less available space month-over-month.
But don't mistake this temporary easing for a return to “normal.” Warehouse pricing remains robust, signaling a likely continuation of the expansion seen in 2025.
Why This Matters: This brief window of relief masks a longer-term capacity crunch. As excess inventories from tariff front-loading work through the system and demand eventually rebounds, available warehouse space will tighten quickly. The infrastructure isn't being built to support future growth.
What You Should Do: Now is the time to lock in favorable warehouse agreements and optimize your network footprint. Tactics such as deploying advanced demand planning technology to improve forecast accuracy and optimizing inventory levels should be considered before the 2026 peak sourcing and shipping seasons kick off. It’s not hyperbole to say that strategic decisions about warehouse locations and inventory positioning made in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 will determine your operating efficiency for years to come.
The geography of global trade is being redrawn, with tariffs a driving factor. For example, ocean freight volumes from China to the U.S. were down 7% year-over-year, with December 2025 imports falling 16.4% compared to December 2024. Meanwhile, sourcing from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and India continues to accelerate as companies diversify away from China.
But this shift isn't just changing where goods come from. Ocean carriers have redeployed capacity from transpacific routes to Asia-Europe and intra-Asian lanes, creating pricing volatility across all trades.
Why This Matters: Unless you made changes to your carrier network throughout 2025, the rules for managing your international shipping are likely obsolete. Chances are the lanes you've relied on for years are now volatile in both capacity and pricing.
What You Should Do: Now is the time to review your sourcing footprint and global shipping lanes. Uncertainty and change will continue, so make a point of building flexibility into your agreements where possible and developing contingency plans. It’s important to partner with freight forwarders who maintain diversified carrier portfolios and can pivot quickly when changes (like new tariffs) and disruptions happen. Companies successfully navigating 2026 are those investing in supply chain visibility platforms that provide real-time visibility, enabling proactive decision-making and inventory management rather than reactive firefighting.
After three years of what could be called the "Great Freight Recession," trucking capacity remains high with rates favorable for shippers. The U.S. has seen 13 consecutive quarters of soft freight demand, with spot rates at their lowest levels since 2019.
This extended downturn has fundamentally restructured the market. Carrier bankruptcies are accelerating, with more companies shutting down in 2025 than in any prior year of the recession. There are structural changes coming, too. The pending railroad merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern will impact rail and truckload shipping across the country.
Why This Matters: This favorable environment for shippers is unsustainable. Capacity is leaving the market, and once the supply-demand balance shifts, rates will rise—possibly sharply. Industry forecasters expect the market to stabilize in 2026 and begin a meaningful recovery in 2027. Companies that fail to lock in rates now will face significantly higher costs when capacity tightens.
What You Should Do: A buyer’s market makes it a good time for shippers to focus on building strategic partnerships with financially stable carriers rather than simply chasing the lowest spot rate. The carriers surviving this downturn are lean, efficient, and will have pricing power when conditions improve. Additionally, monitor the proposed rail merger closely. If approved by early 2027, this transcontinental combination could significantly impact domestic intermodal shipping by creating 10,000 new single-line routes and converting an estimated 2 million truckloads from road to rail annually.
The era of predictable annual rate increases is over. You’re no doubt aware that FedEx and UPS announced matching 5.9% General Rate Increases for 2026, but the headline number hides a frustrating reality: the new trend is for carriers to implement mid-year rate adjustments on top of their traditional GRIs, changing how parcel costs evolve throughout the year.
Service-level rate differences, minimum charges, accessorial fees, and fuel surcharges are often aligned between the carriers, but key differences exist that make frequent contract reviews necessary. A pattern has emerged with the most commonly billed surcharges, including dimensional weight adjustments, delivery area surcharges, and additional handling fees, being modified seemingly randomly rather than annually at the start of the year.
Why This Matters: If you're still planning parcel costs based solely on the published GRI, you're dramatically underestimating your actual costs in 2026. Companies that negotiated contracts in 2025 are already seeing costs diverge from their budgets in early 2026 due to mid-year adjustments they didn't anticipate. Accessorial charges and fuel surcharges can add 20-30% to base rates, and these components are increasingly volatile.
What You Should Do: Take steps to implement continuous monitoring of your parcel spend, not just annual contract reviews. Deploy parcel business intelligence software that tracks every component of your costs, including base rates, accessorials, fuel surcharges, and other charges, so you're alerted when changes occur. Considering regional carriers as alternatives to FedEx and UPS (see #5 below), as well as renegotiating existing contracts with your parcel carriers, should be priorities early in 2026.
The competitive dynamics in last-mile delivery are shifting dramatically. USPS announced it will open its network of more than 18,000 delivery destination units (DDUs) to shippers of all sizes through a competitive bidding process beginning in early 2026. This move, driven by new Postmaster General David Steiner, represents a fundamental shift in how USPS approaches commercial relationships.
For years, USPS' last-mile access was limited to large-volume customers like Amazon and UPS. Now, shippers will be able to bid on volume, pricing, and tender times at each location for same-day or next-day delivery.
Why This Matters: USPS delivers to more than 170 million addresses at least six days a week, which is coverage that private carriers don't match. For lightweight, high-volume residential shipments where consistency matters more than speed, USPS's DDU network offers potentially significant cost savings. Regional carriers are also expanding aggressively, offering competitive rates and more innovative service levels.
What You Should Do: Evaluate USPS DDU access as part of a comprehensive multi-carrier strategy for 2026. Work with your fulfillment partners or 3PLs to model costs for injecting packages into USPS's local delivery network, but don't expect it to be a simple plug-and-play solution. This approach requires upstream transportation, sorting, and IT integration investments. The companies winning in 2026 aren't loyal to a single carrier. They're strategic, using the right carrier for each specific package.
After years of the parcel industry obsessing over speed, customer preferences are becoming more nuanced. While 74% of online shoppers expect delivery within two days, research shows that 90% of consumers are willing to wait two or three days if it helps avoid shipping costs. Interestingly, consumers now rate on-time reliability as more important than speed.
Half of consumers actively track their orders, and 85% don't even consider an order "unacceptably late" if it arrives within one to two days of the expected window. What they value is flexibility. Over 50% place importance on being able to schedule deliveries, choose delivery locations, and receive proactive updates about delays.
Why This Matters: The relentless race to same-day delivery isn't what most customers want. Predictability, transparency, and control matter most. Meanwhile, those offering rigid delivery commitments without flexibility are failing to meet modern expectations. The gap between what customers value and companies’ approaches appears wider than ever.
What You Should Do: Smart shippers are taking a more data-driven approach to delivery, shifting from a speed-at-all-costs mindset to a focus on reliability and transparency. Investing in order tracking technology that provides real-time visibility and data analytics tools that model different cost scenarios is a necessary tactic for successfully aligning your operations with real-world expectations. Companies that nail reliable, transparent, flexible delivery at a sustainable cost structure will outperform their competition.
No parts of the logistics market will be kind to companies waiting for stability to return in 2026. Before anything else, we suggest that companies take action to cover all their bases, including securing needed warehouse space and favorable rates while they're available, diversifying their carrier mix and renegotiating parcel contracts, building flexibility into their supply chain networks (from sourcing to last-mile delivery), and aligning service offerings with actual customer preferences rather than old assumptions.
Don't navigate these challenges alone. TransImpact’s supply chain experts specialize in helping manufacturing and retail companies optimize their logistics operations for changing market conditions.
Whether you need help renegotiating carrier contracts, redesigning your warehouse network, diversifying your sourcing strategy, or implementing technology to improve visibility and decision-making, we have the experience and solutions to ensure your success in 2026 and beyond.
Contact sales-info@transimpact.com for a complimentary supply chain assessment and discover how we can help you turn these challenges into competitive advantages.