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Here is TransImpact’s October Managed Logistics Update. In it, you will find the latest news and trends our expert team is watching that are important to TL, LTL, and International shippers. It’s everything you need to know.

We’re giving you just the facts!

Full Truckload

The Full Truckload Van capacity imbalance is continuing to impact Eastbound shipments.

    • Eastbound rates have risen much more substantially than Westbound rates in the last year as carriers position themselves to get back to the West Coast, where shipment volume is at an all-time high.

A vaccine mandate has several possible outcomes.

    • There could be employee attrition in blue-collar industries which will slow down overall production and GDP.
    • It could exacerbate the ongoing driver shortage, port congestion, etc.

Current manufacturing levels have been above pre-pandemic levels since April 2021.

There was a demand spike in August leading up to Labor Day which caused a spike in market rejection rates and general rates. Hurricane IDA also introduces another variable that impacted the market.

    • These increases were driven by typical supply/ demand and have now fallen back down to “normal” levels (which are still up YoY).
    • The market is still expected to be constrained moving into Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.
      • Expect rejection rates and demand to spike again moving into the holiday peak season.
    • Local/ Shorthaul moves are up 12-15%.
      • Local moves are fueled by the demand to get containers out of the ports and into warehouses to ease port congestion.
    • Mini-bids and weekly rates are becoming a big player in the contract market.
      • This is effectively creating a pseudo-spot market that is easier to plan and budget for.
      • The benefit is shippers are still playing the spot market, but get the benefit of a flatter rate curve throughout the week and introducing more competition among its contracted base.

International

Large retailers are now opting to charter entire ships – average lease time increased from four months in July 2020 to over 30 months in June 2021. This is exacerbating the existing ship shortage, which is expected to continue beyond 2023.

China to West and East Coast rates up 20-25% over August. Now, getting into the $20K per container range. Panama inbound rates are steady at around $11K.

Expect the fallout from the Q4 peak season to extend into Q2 2022.

Less-than-Truckload

Overall LTL capacity remains constrained and new bids are vetted more thoroughly than ever by all service providers.

    • Shipments that are over-length, fragile, non-standard, hazmat, etc. are all being heavily scrutinized. These shipments will likely either be very costly to move or declined outright by the majority of carriers.

ArcBest acquired MoLo for $235M. The Deal will augment the assets of ArcBest to possibly open the door again for more reliable drop-trailer capacity.

Southeastern Freight Lines is finally easing back into bidding on new customers. The carrier had been declining all new bids since Q2 2020.

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